Ketchikan, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

174
FXAK67 PAJK 060636 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
936 PM AKST Thu Feb 5 2026

.UPDATE...Dense Fog formed in the Juneau and Hoonah area down to
1/4 mile. A Dense fog advisory was issued to 2 am. Adding one for
Hoonah area, and likely the eastern Icy Strait, southern Lynn
Canal and Northern Stephens.

06z TAF update for the Aviation. only minor changes and kept most
of the timing for the rain moving to the are. But adding the lower
visibility fog for at least the Juneau area.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 314 pm Thu 5 Feb 2026...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Brief breaks in rain expected for Thursday from Kupreanof Island
  northward to the Icy Strait corridor with one departing system
  to the north and another arriving from the south.

- Unseasonably warm overnight and daytime temperatures will
  continue through early next week.

- Active weather returns Thursday night through the weekend as
  multiple fronts push through the panhandle with isolated wind
  gusts up to 35 mph possible for Ketchikan, Annette Island,
  S Clarence Strait, and SE Prince of Wales Island.

SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/...Somewhat complicated pattern,
yet relatively unimpactful weather going forward. Two sections of
moisture are present over the panhandle, represented well in rain
rate satellite products: over the NE gulf coast mountains from
continued onshore flow, and a band of moderate showers over the
southern panhandle associated with a shortwave trough. Another
shortwave aloft is anticipated to move up from the south, pushing
the original band of precipitation northward with more warm
temperatures aloft and a prominent dry slot of air. The result
overnight will be some clearing for the Icy Strait area and
northward, an inversion, and areas of fog developing overnight.

Yet another short wave moves northward on Friday, bringing
additional widespread showers over the panhandle. Conditions
definitely look conditionally unstable going into Friday and Friday
night, with cold temperatures even resulting in a few lightning
strikes, but confidence is low on this outcome. Could also see some
ice pellets/sleet with these showers from the lower freezing
levels.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through early next week/...The main feature
going into Saturday is a cold front racing up from the south,
resulting rapid increases in southerly wind gusts, briefly cooler
temperatures, and showers with rain and ice pellets. For the
marine areas, currently expecting to see fresh to strong
southerlies with possible gale force gusts associated with this
cold front. What follows this cold front is continued onshore
flow, associated with multiple shortwave troughs associated with
the longwave trough that has been responsible for the continued
warm temperatures.

Looking toward early to mid week next week sees the next proper
frontal passage for the panhandle, bringing more precipitation and
increased winds. Ultimately, most of the energy expected to move
into the SE AK area is originated from a strong Bering Sea low
pressure. As the associated front from the low in the Bering moves
eastward, the triple point looks to form into its own low center
near the northern gulf, swinging a front over the panhandle. Early
indication of the trough moving over the Coast Mountains and into
Canada could result in strong wind gusts up to 50 mph over land
areas, and gale force southeasterlies in the inner channels.
Definitely a system to watch going forward.

Looking far into the extended, ensemble guidance seems to indicate
our warm streak has come to an end, with little to hold back the
deepening cold air in Canada by late next week. While details could
change, there is definitely growing confidence in below normal
temperatures going into the second half of February.

AVIATION.../through Friday afternoon/...
Generally VFR conditions across the northern panhandle TAF sites
and PASI, with generally MVFR flight conditions PAYA as well as
the southern TAF sites as a weak front is bringing rain.
As the front lifts north late tonight into Friday, VIS and CIGs
will lower and become MVFR across the northern panhandle while
improving and become VFR across the southern panhandle. PAYA will
improve tonight into Friday. Another front brings more rain and
MVFR conditions for Friday, starting across the southern panhandle
late Friday morning and lifting into the northern panhandle late
Friday afternoon/evening.

Winds generally less than 10kt through the period. Slightly
stronger winds 10-15g20-25kt for PAKT on Friday. Minor LLWS
concerns for S Panhandle TAF sites by this afternoon as
aforementioned front pushes inland, primarily PAKT and PAKW.
Current expectation is E-ly LLWS with winds 2kft aloft 25-35kt.
More E-ly LLWS expected with the front on Friday with winds 2kft
aloft 30-40kt beginning Friday morning across the south and
spreading north through the afternoon.

MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Gulf winds have been calming
down through Tuesday, with the moderate swath of wind moving out
of the northern central gulf. Dixon Entrance will stay relatively
elevated through tonight before another band of southeasterly
fresh to strong breezes moves into the gulf Friday. These winds
are expected to persist into the weekend with continued shortwave
activity. Dixon Entrance may see periods of gale force gusts
Friday into Saturday. Wave heights of 9 to 11 ft at a period of 10
to 12 seconds are expected to persist throughout the gulf,
slightly decreasing through the weekend as southerly swell drops
from around 10 ft to 4 ft by Friday night.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds in the inner channels have widely
weakened Thursday, and are expected to remain relatively benign
through the rest of the night. As the next shortwave moves
northward through the panhandle, southeasterly fresh to strong
breezes will move up through the channels and persist through the
weekend. Clarence Strait will see strong breezes to near gales
with this system, with the potential for gale force gusts.
Weakening winds tonight will allow for fog to develop which can
reduce visibilities and create hazardous traveling conditions. In
protected areas, fog could even create visibilities less than one
nautical mile overnight. Northerly winds through Lynn Canal will
start to pick up overnight, though they aren`t expected to exceed
fresh breezes.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM AKST Friday for AKZ325.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
     671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99

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