Ketchikan, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

000
FXAK67 PAJK 181303
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-Precip lingering in the south through at least Thursday, with
 drier weather for the rest of the panhandle.

-Northerly outflow continuing and strengthening across the north
 through the next few days with freezing spray becoming more
 widespread and temperatures becoming colder.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Thursday/...The prolonged series of systems that
have brought snow (and for some areas rain) across SE AK since
last weekend is finally winding down. Aloft, the Eastern flank of
the upper level trough, which had been directing waves of precip
into the panhandle, has shifted further south, and is now helping
to steer a large plume of moisture into the Pacific Northwest.

Closer to the surface, accumulating snow will linger across the
southern panhandle through Thursday morning, as a weakening low
near Haida Gwaii continues to send convective showers rotating
across the area, with moderate snow accumulations (2-5 inches)
expected; though should showers train, some isolated areas could
receive more. A few showers could reach as far north as Kake,
though the vast majority of activity will be located from Point
Baker (Prince of Wales island) southward. Precip will dwindle
through Thursday afternoon as the low continues to decay, and
while some chances of showers do linger through early Friday,
these will be increasingly spotty in nature. That being said,
sharper mid level lapse rates Thursday morning mean that some of
the convective showers for the southern panhandle could have a few
lightning strikes associated with them.

For the northern half of the panhandle, upper level cloud cover
will increasingly clear out through Thursday and Thursday night,
even as temperatures continue their general downward trend. Strong
outflow winds and plunging temperatures will combine to create
frigid wind chills, elevated seas, and freezing spray, which will
last through the duration of the forecast time frame. Taku Wind
potential remains for downtown Juneau, especially during the
latter half of Thursday/Thursday night as the critical layer
becomes increasingly strong and the mountain wave already present
strengthens, increasing the likelihood of high wind gusts making
it to the surface.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/... Overall outflow
conditions and colder temperatures are the main impacts the end of
the week through the weekend, as an upper level trough sets up
over the panhandle and a series of lows pass to the south into the
west coast of British Columbia. This will allow some slight
chances of precipitation to remain in the far southern panhandle,
but the low being situated to the south with a surface high over
the Yukon by Saturday and Sunday will allow for strong northerly
outflow across the northern panhandle and making its way into the
central panhandle through N/S channels. A stronger gradient also
sets up along the coastal mountain area to the NE into Saturday
morning, bringing stronger winds coming out of Taku Inlet and the
mouth of the Stikine River with the gradient remaining strong into
Monday morning. This stronger gradient for this weekend will allow
for some stronger NE 925 mb winds, which have already been
showing through the long range models around the Juneau area. This
strong cross barrier flow expected Friday evening through Saturday
and into Sunday is also expected alongside weak 500 mb winds over
the panhandle as the trough sets up over the area, creating a good
critical level from this no flow area just over Juneau. The last
ingredient is the inversion expected over Juneau between 900-800
mb, and all together these all being expected for the Juneau area
this weekend bring confidence at a Taku Wind event. At this
time, uncertainty still remains at exactly how strong these wind
gusts will be and the exact timing of it during the weekend, but
confidence is high for over 60 mph gusts Saturday and potentially
lingering longer into Sunday if these favorable conditions stay in
place for longer.

Along with this outflow and stronger northerly winds pushing down
through the panhandle this weekend brings colder temperatures into
the weekend, with the decreasing temperature trend this week
lasting well into Saturday and Sunday. This will bring surface
temperatures to just around 0 degrees F and down into the
negatives as the minimum temperatures this weekend for the
northern panhandle at sea level down to parts of Icy Strait
Corridor, and with the wind chill temperatures the northern
panhandle from Skagway and Haines down to Gustavus and Juneau have
a Cold Weather Advisory in effect Thursday through Sunday for
Juneau and Gustavus, starting tonight for Skagway and Haines and
lasting into Sunday as well. The highways will see even lower
temperatures at elevation, alongside dangerous wind chill
temperatures. This brings Skagway up to an Extreme Cold Warning
lasting Thursday Heavy freezing spray will also continue to be a
hazard into the weekend due to the cold temperatures and strong
outflow conditions. These cold, dry, and windier outflow conditions
are to continue into early next week, however the coldest
temperatures at this time are expected Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Absolutely no change in message for the northern
panhandle: cold, windy, VFR conditions continue to dominate. For
the southern half, precip has converted completely over to snow
with predominantly MVFR to IFR for mainly VIS this morning.
Expecting to see variable bouncing of conditions with light snow
showers moving over the southern TAF sites. Not expecting much
moisture to reach into Petersburg and Wrangell post 20z, as the
low center passing south will largely negate much of the southerly
flow at that point. LLWS threats diminish Wednesday morning for
the northern coast.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside (Gulf of Alaska/Coastal Waters):
Easterly and northeasterly outflow winds continue to scream out of
Cross Sound and other outflow channels across the Gulf Coast, with
Sumner/Chatham ocean entrances reporting at or near- gale force
conditions. Coastal buoys are reporting southerly swell at 6 to
10ft and a period of 10 to 12 seconds. This swell, combined with
outflow winds, is continuing to create large and confused seas,
especially near Cross Sound and the Fairweather grounds. This
trend will continue through Friday before winds slightly weaken.
This break will be short lived; strong gales will be felt at Cross
Sound and the Fairweather grounds by late Saturday. Moderate
freezing spray is likely near major bays and river outlets along
the northern coast, with the 45F ocean temperatures being the
limiting factor.

Inside (Inner Channels):
Strong gale force outflow winds continue to pummel the inner
channels, with the most danger in areas along and north of the Icy
Strait Corridor (Cross Sound east to Taku Inlet) and Stephens
Passage. Expect winds to continue and/or increase Thursday as the
pressure gradient tightens between the Gulf of Alaska and Canada;
however, sustained winds should remain within strong-gale force,
with gusts to storm force, with the exception of Northern Lynn
Canal which will at times see sustained winds reaching ~50 kt.
Seas of 12 to 17 ft will continue to impact Lynn Canal and
northern Chatham, with pockets of particularly elevated seas also
in the vicinity of localized outflow areas (like Taku Inlet).
Heavy freezing spray is expected with higher confidence the closer
you are to Canada, including Lynn Canal, the arms of Glacier Bay,
and areas in the general vicinity of Taku Inlet. Mariners should
heed caution with these dangerous conditions. Outflow winds will
persist through at least early next week.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ318-325.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST Sunday
     for AKZ318.
     Cold Weather Advisory until noon AKST Sunday for AKZ319.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST Sunday
     for AKZ320-325.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Friday for
     AKZ325.
     High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for
     AKZ325.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for
     AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Storm Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011-013-022-031-032-053-642>644-651-663-664-
     671.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-033>035-641-652-661-662-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...AP/GFS

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