Ketchikan, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

535
FXAK67 PAJK 020625 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
925 PM AKST Sun Nov 1 2026

.EVENING, LONG TERM, AND AVIATION UPDATE...

No major changes to ongoing forecast, minor tweaks to wind
directions as the small low continues to weaken and dissipate into
British Columbia. With that, allowed the Wind Advisories for
Ketchikan and Annette Island to expire earlier this evening as
winds continue to diminish. Through tonight, another low will be
develop in the North Pacific, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall
across the SE portion of the panhandle, including Ketchikan,
Hyder and Annette Island into Monday, contrary to lower rain
chances across the northern panhandle.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- The wet and active pattern will continue through the week as
  multiple fronts push into the South panhandle, bringing periods
  of moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Maritime interests should remain aware of multiple Gale force
  fronts with potential for Storm Force Wind Gusts across the Gulf
  and along the Southeast Alaska coast on Tuesday, Thursday, and
  into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday night/...
The meso low is currently jumping inland around Cape Decision as
of this afternoon, bringing elevated westerly winds near Cape
Decision with increased winds across the central inner channels
expected as the low pushes in. It will begin to quickly shear
apart in the evening hours as it continues moving northeastward,
keeping winds generally lower across the area as it weakens into
an open wave trough tonight. This will keep another round of
precipitation pushing through the area through tonight. Following
this will be more showery precipitation across the central and
northern panhandle into Monday as the parent low lingers in the NW
Gulf and pushes in more disorganized rounds of precipitation into
the area through Monday night.

Another low will also be developing and moving into Haida Gwaii
overnight tonight into Monday, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall
across the SE portion of the panhandle, including Ketchikan,
Hyder and Annette Island with 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rainfall by
Monday afternoon, but its main plume of moisture looks to remain
to the south moving into British Columbia. A break looks to come
for parts of the central and southern panhandle around Sumner up
to Frederick Sound, before a larger and more widespread system
begins to move in Tuesday morning.

Snowfall across the higher elevations of the Klondike and Haines
Highways will continue to diminish this afternoon through the
night. Light snow above 1400 ft on the Klondike and a wintry mix
along the Haines Highway is expected to last through the night and
into the morning, with up to 1 to 2 inches of new snow
accumulation along the Haines Highway near Customs and 2 to 4
inches along the Klondike Highway by the morning.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/
An active Fall pattern continues through the extended forecast.
Maritime interests should remain aware of multiple Gale force
fronts pushing across the Gulf and along the SEAK coast by
Thursday and into the weekend.

We pick up the extended forecast on Wednesday morning with the
remnants of the Tuesday system pushing out of SEAK, scattered
showers and diminishing winds briefly through the afternoon.
However, Wednesday will be the last "quiet" day of the extended
period as multiple strong low pressure systems that will traverse
the North Pacific and then into the Gulf for the end of the week
and into the weekend. Some variance on timing , but still thinking
by Wednesday night a strong low develops in the northern Pacific
and deepens to ~970mb by Thursday morning as it moves into the
southern Gulf of Alaska. This low will swing a strong occluding
front across the gulf through Thursday, bringing another round of
sustained Gale force winds 35 to 45 kts and storm force gusts up
to 55 kts across the Gulf and along the coast from Dixon Entrance
northward to the Fairweather Grounds by Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. Strong overland winds up to 45 mph focused across
the southern panhandle by Tuesday afternoon, primarily Prince of
Wales, Ketchikan, and Annette Island so will need to keep on
potential Wind Advisory Issuance moving into the middle part of
the week. This low and its attendant front continue to push into
the NE Gulf coast through Friday afternoon with scattered,off and
on showers becoming more prevalent into Friday night, so there is
a potential brief break in the widespread rainfall Friday night,
albeit not high confidence.

Total rainfall amounts from the front on Thursday into Friday
total ~0.5 to 1.5 inches across the northern and central
panhandle, and ~1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain for the southern
panhandle. With the follow up systems from Friday night into
Saturday night, rainfall amounts will once again be around the
same, maybe a bit higher given influx of available moisture tap.
All in all, the totals from Thursday through Saturday night,
around 72 hours, are around 2 to 4 inches for the northern and
central panhandle, 3 to 5 inches across the southern areas. Give
persistent warmer southerly winds across the panhandle, any
snowfall should remain at the upper elevations of the Klondike
Highway near White Pass and Haines Border Crossing. The further we
get into the extended the less forecast confidence in placement
of developing systems, but general consensus is that the pattern
remains active with yet another surface low developing in the Gulf
of Alaska on the periphery of a deep long wave trough situated
across the Gulf into latter half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Monday evening/...
The mesolow that brought winds and precipitation across the
Panhandle Sunday is pushing eastward into Canada. Winds across the
Panhandle are expected to continue decreasing tonight. With
clouds around, showers are possible with a low in the Gulf and
onshore flow. As has been observed in Sitka, some showers may
bring brief IFR ceilings and visibilities. After 00Z Tuesday, a
more organized band of showers is expected to move into the
Northern Panhandle. As showers move into the area, expect MVFR
ceilings for Gustavus and Sitka, and perhaps Juneau, Haines, and
Skagway as well. Yakutat, nearest to the low center pressure,
appears less likely to see a VFR with showers in their vicinity.

A low pressure system in the North Pacific will move
northeastward toward the Southern Panhandle, and will bring more
organized rainfall to areas generally south of Fredrick Sound
early Monday. With the system, ceilings are generally expected to
remain MVFR through Monday afternoon for Ketchikan and Klawock.
However, as the low moves into Canada, VFR conditions appear more
likely toward the end of the TAF period for PAKT and PAKW. As of
now, LLWS does not appear to be a concern during the TAF period,
but gusty winds are certainly possible.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): An area of low pressure
Southeast of Kodiak Island has been sending a front through the
Panhandle today. Behind the front, expect winds and seas to
decrease through late tonight. A mesolow currently near Cape
Decision Tuesday, a stronger front will approach the area, and
bring gale force winds into the Gulf of Alaska. There is also
potential for storm force winds due to a barrier jet forming
between Icy Cape and Cape Suckling.


Inside (Inner Channels): Along a front impacting SE Alaska, a
mesolow expected to move NE near Baranof Island is expected to
increase wind speeds for Chatham Strait and Southern Stephens
Passage. As it moves into the inner channels, expect the system to
dissipate. Early Monday morning, a secondary mesolow in the North
Pacific will bring stronger winds to the Southern inner channels.
Based on the track of the low, it may bring gale force winds into
Clarence Strait.

Based on current guidance, the strongest winds should stay in
Dixon Entrance. However, the track will be closely monitored. For
the Northern inner channels, winds are expected to not be as
strong, as the low SE of Kodiak Island will weaken. Another area
of low pressure will move in from the West on Tuesday, and this is
expected to increase winds again Tuesday. Late Tuesday into
Wednesday, the strongest gale force winds are again expected in
Clarence Strait.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...NM
AVIATION...Musall
MARINE...Musall

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